Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3be6…a7bf world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
other 27% $0
politics 15% $0
economics 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.0% -7.7% 25% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 41% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 41% 0% -9.5%
all 42 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage332d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $23 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $23 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $50 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $18 $0 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $4 $0 -4%
Will XRP reach $3.7 in July? Jul 30 $61 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 29 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $62 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 29 $7 $0 -1%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 28 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 27 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $19 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $18 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $25 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $25 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $23 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $23 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $23 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $23 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $23 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $23 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $25 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $28 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records