Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3B 0x3be6…57cf crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate56%10W / 8L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,039per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,079now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$14

7 days+$5

14 days−$7

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-49.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-39.9%	-45.6%	60%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	18	-44.3%	-49.6%	56%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	18	-44.3%	-49.6%	56%	0%	-9.5%
all	18	-44.3%	-49.6%	56%	0%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-49.6%	0%	-9.5%
10%	-54.4%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-58.8%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-62.9%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -44% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,070) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -22% → late -67% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage

Net worth$2,079

Realized+$6

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses10 / 8

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage28d

Avg bet$1,039

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,080	$2,074	−$6 (-0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	95¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14?	Jun 14	$2,074	+$6	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 13?	Jun 14	$2,070	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13?	Jun 13	$2,067	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9?	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	Jun 02	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1?	Jun 01	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	May 30	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Solana reach $95 on May 26?	May 27	$2,083	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	May 26	$2,077	+$6	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25?	May 26	$2,073	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?	May 25	$2,069	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$2,065	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	May 24	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22?	May 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19?	May 20	$15	$0	+1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17?	May 18	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14?	BUY No	100¢	$2,080	1h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14?	BUY No	100¢	$2,074	20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 13?	BUY No	100¢	$2,070	24h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13?	BUY No	100¢	$2,067	42h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	3d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9?	BUY No	0¢	$4	5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	13d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	16d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	18d
Will Solana reach $95 on May 26?	BUY No	100¢	$2,083	19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	BUY No	100¢	$2,077	19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25?	BUY No	100¢	$2,073	20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?	BUY No	100¢	$2,069	20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,065	21d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	21d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19?	BUY No	99¢	$15	26d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	28d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,078.96 · official $2,078.96 (match) · 34 history records