Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3be7…6367 other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$333 (+2%) realized +$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate82%151W / 34L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$7
14 days+$3
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$291
sports 5% −$36
world 2% +$30
politics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.9% -18.5% 78% 22% -10.9%
≤30d 40 -24.3% -31.6% 62% 25% -13.5%
≤90d 115 -8.7% -17.4% 76% 35% -7.5%
all 185 -2.9% -12.2% 82% 35% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 35% -8.1%
10% -20.6% 11% -16.9%
15% -28.2% 6% -24.9%
20% -35.3% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$34 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses151 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage164d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 90¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 +$2 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$5 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$28 -40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 $0 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $57 +$4 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$5 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 +$8 +17%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 +$3 +6%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $135 −$79 -58%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $90 +$8 +9%
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $90 +$3 +3%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 May 31 $4 +$1 +38%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $3 +$1 +27%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 30 $80 +$5 +6%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $80 +$12 +14%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 0.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 1.5 May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $70 +$4 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $4 +$1 +38%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 1.5 May 28 $15 −$6 -42%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5 May 28 $12 +$4 +29%
Will Universidad Central de Venezuela FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $56 −$27 -49%
Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 1.5 May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 27 $120 +$4 +3%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $5 −$5 -99%
LDU de Quito vs. Club Always Ready: O/U 3.5 May 27 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $38 −$12 -32%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $35 +$3 +10%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $370 +$14 +4%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $320 +$14 +4%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5 May 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $320 +$9 +3%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 May 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $300 +$11 +4%
EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $286 +$14 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $49 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $47 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $42 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $42 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $70 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 94¢ $70 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $70 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $61 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $62 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 93¢ $57 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 98¢ $57 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $52 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $52 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $50 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $47 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $44 12d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 55¢ $1 12d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 93¢ $34 17d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 17d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 17d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? SELL No 22¢ $21 17d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? SELL No 23¢ $5 17d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 92¢ $110 17d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? SELL No 98¢ $110 17d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 89¢ $100 17d
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? SELL No 100¢ $103 19d
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 97¢ $100 19d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 95¢ $98 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.39 · official $48.39 (match) · 361 history records