Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3be8…2895 crypto 24 markets active 1d ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%22W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,080per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$62
other 10% +$12
economics 1% −$57
sports 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 6 -16.0% -24.0% 83% 0% -20.5%
all 24 +1.1% -8.6% 92% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 8% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,086) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$52 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses22 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage212d
Avg bet$1,080
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? May 05 $154 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $92 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 06 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 06 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 06 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $6 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 18 $2,642 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $2,095 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $2,091 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 4? Dec 04 $833 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 3? Dec 03 $2,086 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 28? Nov 29 $2,084 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 27? Nov 28 $2,081 +$2 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $188 −$57 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 23? Nov 23 $1,948 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 22? Nov 22 $1,987 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $1,985 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 20? Nov 20 $2,114 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 19? Nov 19 $1,302 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 17? Nov 17 $2,102 +$11 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 30¢ $33 43d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 30¢ $14 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $154 75d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $92 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $6 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 162d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $6 167d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $547 181d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $544 181d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $674 182d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $880 182d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $94 182d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $458 182d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $2,098 184d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 7? BUY No 100¢ $2,095 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $178 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $51 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $2 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $100 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $1,100 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $27 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $193 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $21 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records