Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

3B 0x3bea…afc7 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$21 (-10%) realized −$20 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-52.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-47.6%	-52.6%	50%	0%	-24.9%
≤30d	2	-47.6%	-52.6%	50%	0%	-24.9%
≤90d	2	-47.6%	-52.6%	50%	0%	-24.9%
all	2	-47.6%	-52.6%	50%	0%	-24.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.6%	0%	-24.9%
10%	-57.1%	0%	-32.1%
15%	-61.3%	0%	-38.6%
20%	-65.1%	0%	-44.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -48% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$27 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.18 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$77

Realized−$20

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage6d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$39	$39	−$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$38	$38	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$27	−$27	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$101	+$5	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$39	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$40	1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$27	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$106	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$101	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.01 · official $77.01 (match) · 5 history records