Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3bf4…b696
politics · 56 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$66 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage320d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 2 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $6 $0 +4%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 30 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $54 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Jul 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $65 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% −$1
politics 27% +$6
other 23% −$72
sports 13% $0
culture 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $31 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $7 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $11 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 22h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $48 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $33 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $33 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $30 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 29% 14% -9.7%
≤30d 9 +1.0% -8.7% 22% 11% -9.7%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.7% 22% 11% -9.7%
all 54 -1.8% -11.2% 28% 4% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -14.8%
10% -19.7% 2% -23.0%
15% -27.4% 2% -30.4%
20% -34.5% 2% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.90 · official $2.51 (match) · 162 history records