Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3bf9…7925 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% $0
politics 10% $0
other 7% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -8.8% -17.5% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage564d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? Sep 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $0 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jun 05 $0 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 07 $1 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Dec 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 16 $0 $0 +0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 30 $410 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 30 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 21d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 21d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $12 53d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $12 53d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 79d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 80d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 93d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 93d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 115d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 115d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 143d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 143d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $11 179d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $11 179d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 205d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 205d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 232d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 232d
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $12 263d
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $12 263d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 270d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 270d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 307d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 307d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 307d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 338d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 344d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 376d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records