Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bf9…1ffa weather 120 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$566 (+30%) realized +$566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%28W / 92L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day56.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$522
14 days+$502
30 days+$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$464
other 6% −$5
sports 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -6.2% -15.1% 15% 14% +32.6%
≤30d 120 -14.1% -22.2% 23% 22% +16.0%
≤90d 120 -14.1% -22.2% 23% 22% +16.0%
all 120 -14.1% -22.2% 23% 22% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 22% +16.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 20% +4.9%
15% -36.5% 18% -5.2%
20% -42.7% 18% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$10 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses28 / 92
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage12d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day56.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$13 +837%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$40 +1878%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$71 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$11 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 −$66 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 693 history records