Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bf9…5705 crypto 688 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-4%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%256W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$210
sports 5% +$57
other 3% −$27
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.5% -8.2% 39% 39% +27.3%
≤30d 32 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 31% -14.4%
≤90d 631 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 32% -30.4%
all 688 -8.0% -16.7% 37% 36% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 36% -18.0%
10% -24.7% 35% -25.8%
15% -32.0% 33% -33.0%
20% -38.6% 31% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses256 / 432
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)688 / 688
History coverage142d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 688 Trades
no open positions (289 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$32 +284%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 30 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $3 $0 +7%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $3 +$1 +36%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $3 +$3 +93%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +7%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 20 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 20 $6 +$6 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 20 $8 +$16 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 83¢ $43 6h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $11 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1294 history records