Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

3B 0x3bfa…b1b4 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d

TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$167 (-15%) realized −$142 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate69%11W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$100

14 days−$110

30 days−$100

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-17.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-33.4%	-39.7%	33%	0%	-35.0%
≤90d	6	-19.7%	-27.3%	50%	33%	-26.2%
all	16	-8.3%	-17.0%	69%	56%	-23.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.0%	56%	-23.4%
10%	-24.9%	25%	-30.8%
15%	-32.2%	12%	-37.5%
20%	-38.8%	0%	-43.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% too few recent

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late -25% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$55 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$142

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses11 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage158d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Under	52¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$101	−$100	-99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Jun 08	$130	−$10	-8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Jun 03	$127	+$10	+8%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5	May 10	$50	−$31	-63%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Mar 22	$26	+$4	+15%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?	Mar 22	$100	+$30	+30%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?	Mar 08	$25	+$4	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Feb 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Feb 12	$10	+$5	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Feb 12	$8	+$2	+27%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Feb 08	$124	−$124	-100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03?	Feb 04	$37	+$8	+20%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?	Feb 03	$20	+$7	+37%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Feb 02	$118	+$21	+18%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	Jan 17	$103	+$15	+14%
Israel strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?	Jan 12	$99	+$3	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	52¢	$25	1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	67¢	$101	4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL No	85¢	$120	10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY No	92¢	$130	15d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY No	93¢	$127	23d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	34¢	$19	39d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	89¢	$50	39d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	BUY Yes	87¢	$26	100d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?	BUY No	77¢	$100	101d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?	BUY Yes	85¢	$25	103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$10	125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	SELL Up	38¢	$15	126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$10	126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$10	126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$8	126d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY No	83¢	$124	130d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03?	BUY Yes	83¢	$37	135d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?	BUY Yes	73¢	$20	136d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY No	85¢	$118	152d
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	BUY No	87¢	$103	157d
Israel strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$99	158d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.02 (match) · 33 history records