Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3bfe…8a5a crypto 2288 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$37 (+2%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%1207W / 613L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day88.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$58
14 days+$223
30 days+$425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 480 +11.3% +0.7% 61% 61% +1.1%
≤30d 1820 +22.0% +10.4% 66% 66% +11.0%
≤90d 1820 +22.0% +10.4% 66% 66% +11.0%
all 1820 +22.0% +10.4% 66% 66% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 66% +11.0%
10% ← realistic here -0.2% 66% +0.4%
15% -9.8% 66% -9.3%
20% -18.7% 66% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1207 / 613
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1820 / 2288
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day88.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1820 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 55¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.13 · official $10.31 (match) · 3500 history records