Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c01…d612 sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 196d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,110 (+1%) realized +$1,666 · open +$2,444
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate72%81W / 31L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$3,302per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29,255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 196d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 35% +$11,523
other 30% +$2,309
sports 20% −$4,383
tech 8% +$110
world 3% +$2,222
politics 2% +$1,552
culture 1% +$229
finance 0% −$53
crypto 0% +$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.6% +1.9% 80% 60% -31.6%
≤30d 15 +7.9% -2.4% 73% 60% -10.4%
≤90d 40 -6.8% -15.7% 65% 40% -9.2%
all 112 +5.6% -4.4% 72% 44% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 44% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 26% -15.4%
15% -21.9% 14% -23.6%
20% -29.6% 11% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,585) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$567 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$29,255
Realized+$1,666
Unrealized+$2,444
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses81 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions7
Markets (closed)112 / 119
History coverage196d ⚠
Avg bet$3,302
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 73¢ 77¢ $14,748 $15,671 +$923 (+6%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,650 $4,683 +$33 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $3,838 $3,899 +$61 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 81¢ $458 $2,021 +$1,563 (+341%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 81¢ $1,773 $1,630 −$143 (-8%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $1,000 $1,073 +$73 (+7%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 69¢ 56¢ $343 $278 −$66 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $387 +$403 +104%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $285 +$54 +19%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $4,168 −$3,830 -92%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $227 +$50 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,078 +$601 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $830 +$170 +20%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6,980 +$1,520 +22%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $780 +$260 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $8,151 −$2,835 -35%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $7,384 −$3,927 -53%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 07 $42,815 +$4,619 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $710 +$18 +3%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,677 +$2,686 +35%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2,391 −$626 -26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $890 +$110 +12%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $846 +$54 +6%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,001 +$299 +15%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $931 +$49 +5%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $800 +$60 +8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 20 $44 +$20 +45%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $310 −$310 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $238 −$76 -32%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 05 $264 −$171 -65%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $539 +$41 +8%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $4,550 +$450 +10%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $227 +$62 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 27 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $250 −$200 -80%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 13 $27,176 +$1,229 +4%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $45,063 +$577 +1%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $50 −$45 -91%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $1,585 −$559 -35%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 10 $999 −$13 -1%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 08 $2,147 −$96 -4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $501 +$103 +20%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,199 +$430 +36%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $427 +$8 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 30 $3,396 +$631 +19%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 27 $583 +$65 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 26 $1,300 −$53 -4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 24 $508 +$60 +12%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 24 $143 +$9 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $1,158 −$15 -1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 23 $1 $0 +24%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 23 $3 +$4 +128%
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 20 $1,803 +$10 +0%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 20 $2,140 −$1,840 -86%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 20 $985 +$15 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $27 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 4h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $34 4h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 5h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $44 5h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 5h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 5h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $387 8h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $389 8h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 69¢ $181 17h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 17h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $285 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $227 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,270 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $9 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $58 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $3 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $4,152 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $136 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,254.52 · official $29,254.72 (match) · 3500 history records