Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c02…40d8 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
other 29% +$3
politics 14% +$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.4% -11.7% 57% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 47 +3.7% -6.2% 53% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 9% -9.2%
10% -15.1% 6% -17.9%
15% -23.3% 4% -25.8%
20% -30.8% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage442d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 −$4 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $83 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $85 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 27 $26 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $28 $0 -1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? May 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 11 $1 $0 +34%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 09 $3 +$3 +98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? May 05 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $2 +$1 +36%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $40 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $38 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $41 32h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $41 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $12 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $30 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $42 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $18 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $22 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $39 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $45 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records