Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c02…840e crypto 85 markets active 6d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$262 (+5%) realized +$262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%43W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$215
weather 3% +$149
sports 2% +$89
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -50.0% -54.8% 33% 33% -49.9%
≤30d 11 -42.7% -48.2% 36% 36% -79.1%
≤90d 85 -16.9% -24.8% 51% 44% -9.5%
all 85 -16.9% -24.8% 51% 44% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 44% -9.5%
10% -32.0% 36% -18.1%
15% -38.6% 27% -26.0%
20% -44.6% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$31 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses43 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage27d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +73%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? May 15 $150 +$148 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $88 +$89 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 14 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 14 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 14 $11 +$14 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 14 $16 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $62 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $124 −$60 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 14 $62 +$58 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 14 $103 +$15 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 14 $62 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 14 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 14 $88 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 14 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 14 $228 −$19 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 14 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 14 $90 −$50 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 14 $57 +$26 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 14 $124 +$40 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 14 $88 −$25 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 14 $124 −$60 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $165 +$45 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 14 $62 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 14 $128 +$30 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 70¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 28¢ $21 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 2? BUY No 0¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $299 31d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $150 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 32d
Canadiens vs. Sabres SELL Canadiens 100¢ $176 32d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 49¢ $88 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $18 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records