Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c03…474f crypto 631 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$463 (-8%) realized −$463 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%322W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$132
14 days−$278
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$605
sports 3% +$10
weather 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 51% -38.2%
≤30d 247 -11.3% -19.8% 49% 47% -26.0%
≤90d 580 -14.9% -23.0% 48% 45% -23.4%
all 631 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 49% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 49% -19.5%
10% -21.7% 44% -27.2%
15% -29.3% 39% -34.2%
20% -36.2% 36% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$463
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses322 / 309
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)631 / 631
History coverage103d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 631 Trades
no open positions (196 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$12 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$12 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $65 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1304 history records