Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c06…bbe2 crypto 17 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$759 (-23%) realized −$759 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$798
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -40.9% -46.6% 35% 24% -32.1%
≤30d 17 -40.9% -46.6% 35% 24% -32.1%
≤90d 17 -40.9% -46.6% 35% 24% -32.1%
all 17 -40.9% -46.6% 35% 24% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.6% 24% -32.1%
10% ← realistic here -51.7% 24% -38.6%
15% -56.4% 24% -44.5%
20% -60.6% 24% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$158 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$759
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $511 −$495 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $321 −$310 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $619 +$484 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $112 +$9 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $308 +$239 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $320 −$161 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$129 +124%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $88 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $169 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records