Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c0e…a5cc crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate67%33W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$86
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$21
crypto 9% +$2
sports 7% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +30.8% +18.4% 73% 64% -20.7%
≤30d 49 +5.8% -4.3% 67% 45% -19.4%
≤90d 49 +5.8% -4.3% 67% 45% -19.4%
all 49 +5.8% -4.3% 67% 45% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 45% -19.4%
10% -13.5% 35% -27.1%
15% -21.8% 33% -34.1%
20% -29.5% 24% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses33 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage9d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $57 $67 +$10 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $56 −$56 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$23 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 −$63 -66%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $193 −$97 -50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $126 +$67 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$35 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $57 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $56 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $33 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $95 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $95 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $193 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $112 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 34h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.14 · official $67.14 (match) · 104 history records