Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c11…33c9 weather 914 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,169 (+2%) realized +$958 · open −$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%578W / 335L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$390
7 days−$19
14 days−$271
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$1,545
world 13% +$2,061
other 4% +$632
sports 2% −$125
crypto 1% −$199
tech 0% +$37
finance 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 58% -9.5%
≤30d 775 -0.1% -9.6% 63% 59% -9.5%
≤90d 874 -2.1% -11.5% 62% 59% -9.0%
all 913 -0.8% -10.2% 63% 59% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 59% -8.0%
10% -18.8% 42% -16.8%
15% -26.6% 25% -24.8%
20% -33.8% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$40 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$958
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses578 / 335
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)913 / 914
History coverage145d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 913 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 63¢ 64¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? No 64¢ 64¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? No 73¢ 71¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 72¢ 66¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 76¢ 61¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? No 50¢ 24¢ $44 $21 −$23 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 29¢ 1¢ $49 $2 −$47 (-96%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 27¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 72¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 18? No 78¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? No 73¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? No 49¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 9? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? No 73¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? No 55¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 2? No 46¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? No 74¢ 0¢ $242 $0 −$242 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on June Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on Jun Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$11 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$17 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$20 +59%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $38 −$33 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $40 −$32 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$20 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $47 +$14 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$10 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$23 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $44 +$13 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 +$8 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$33 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$9 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$11 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$11 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$12 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$21 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $36 +$19 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $23 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $40 −$7 -19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $36 −$25 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$15 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$20 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$11 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$20 +51%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$22 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$29 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $37 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $39 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$12 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 14¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $42 40m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 50¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 49¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 11¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 41¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 41¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 49¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 16¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 15¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 47¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $43 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.23 · official $203.23 (match) · 2868 history records