Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c14…95d5 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%30W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$4
economics 15% −$1
other 14% +$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% +$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.8% +5.7% 100% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 3 +16.8% +5.7% 100% 33% -7.7%
≤90d 16 +4.5% -5.4% 100% 12% -8.7%
all 35 +2.0% -7.8% 86% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 14% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 9% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 6% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses30 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)35 / 43
History coverage613d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Africa reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 15 $65 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $2 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Mar 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Mar 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Celtics Feb 09 $1 $0 +22%
Lakers vs. Wizards Feb 09 $1 $0 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
49ers vs. Browns Jan 30 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 30? Jan 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Jan 30 $138 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Nov 30 $22 $0 +0%
LAR vs. Panthers Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 18 $13 $0 +0%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Oct 22 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? Oct 22 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 21 $798 −$1 -0%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Oct 21 $799 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will South Africa reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 42d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $5 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 42d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 65d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 65d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $2 69d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 69d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 69d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 69d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 69d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 101d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 101d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 101d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $11 101d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 101d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 137d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $17 137d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $100 137d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 147d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 147d
Lakers vs. Wizards BUY Lakers 77¢ $1 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.90 · official $157.90 (match) · 81 history records