Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c15…45a0 sports 761 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$230 (+1%) realized +$355 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%330W / 403L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,006
7 days−$2,151
14 days+$150
30 days+$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,565
other 17% +$443
politics 10% +$1,295
tech 1% +$13
crypto 1% −$56
economics 0% +$57
culture 0% −$36
world 0% +$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+70.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 +37.9% +24.7% 30% 22% -42.0%
≤30d 328 +59.0% +43.9% 39% 30% -8.4%
≤90d 733 +87.9% +70.0% 45% 36% -11.5%
all 733 +87.9% +70.0% 45% 36% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +70.0% 36% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here +53.7% 32% -20.0%
15% +38.9% 28% -27.7%
20% +25.3% 25% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +124% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$26 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,616
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses330 / 403
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions173
Markets (closed)733 / 761
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 173 History 733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicki Minaj release a new song in 2026? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $112 $131 +$19 (+17%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Argentina 98¢ 99¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 22¢ 7¢ $374 $112 −$262 (-70%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $84 $102 +$18 (+22%)
Will Dylan Wu make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $10 $101 +$91 (+944%)
Will Bud Cauley make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $77 $90 +$13 (+17%)
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 12¢ 61¢ $17 $88 +$71 (+411%)
Will Ben James make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $78 $87 +$10 (+12%)
Will Max Greyserman make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $74 $80 +$7 (+9%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 57¢ $36 $58 +$21 (+58%)
Will Kurt Kitayama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 36¢ 99¢ $18 $50 +$32 (+175%)
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 11¢ 44¢ $12 $48 +$35 (+286%)
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? No 89¢ 97¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $38 $44 +$5 (+14%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 35¢ 38¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will Spencer Tibbits make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
Will Chris Gotterup make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $17 $40 +$23 (+138%)
Will Sahith Theegala make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+59%)
Will John Parry make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+14%)
Will Ben Kohles make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will Niklas Norgaard make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will Xander Schauffele make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+25%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 56¢ 43¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision? No 85¢ 92¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 326 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Royal Fighters Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Paper Rex win Masters Santiago 2026? Jun 20 $16 +$35 +220%
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will "In This Short Life - Devony Smith" win Best Classical Solo Vocal Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Jiangsu Dragons Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +245%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Ch Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Beijing Ducks Jun 20 $1 $0 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jeff Bezos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Georgetown Hoyas vs. St. John's Red Storm (W) Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Gold Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +112%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (W) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
DEL: Iserlohn Roosters vs. ERC Ingolstadt Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -151%
AHL: Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Bridgeport Islanders Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - Journ Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Amur Khabarovsk Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Sentimental Value" be nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Jun 20 $2 +$2 +102%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Providence Bruins Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 20 $4 −$25 -560%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challen Jun 20 $0 +$10 +11197%
Will Peter Hujar's Day win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent S Jun 20 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Damian Lillard win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-03-24? Jun 20 $93 −$97 -104%
Stetson Hatters vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
NL: Fribourg-Gotteron vs. Rapperswil-Jona Lakers Jun 20 $144 −$144 -100%
KHL: SKA St. Petersburg vs. Spartak Moscow Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-31? Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83r Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (W) Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
La Union vs. Ferro Carril Oeste Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Pallacanestro Cantu vs. Napoli Basket Jun 20 $6 $0 -8%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature at the 2026 Critics Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Torpedo Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw? Jun 20 $62 −$84 -137%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Barcelona Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
KHL: Torpedo vs. Sibir Novosibirsk Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Harvard Crimson vs. Columbia Lions (W) Jun 20 $8 −$9 -118%
AHL: Hartford Wolf Pack vs. Charlotte Checkers Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +8%
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Shenzhen Leopards Jun 20 $14 −$13 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on March 22 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $12 42m
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will Bud Cauley make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will Dylan Wu make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Will Ben James make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 1h
Will Andrew Novak make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 2h
Will Kurt Kitayama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 3¢ $1 2h
Will J.B. Holmes make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Will Bud Cauley make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 2h
Will Nick Taylor make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 70¢ $22 2h
Will J.B. Holmes make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Ben James make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 88¢ $36 2h
Will J.B. Holmes make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will J.B. Holmes make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will J.B. Holmes make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will J.B. Holmes make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 91¢ $37 2h
Will Nick Taylor make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 70¢ $6 2h
Will Kristoffer Reitan make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 98¢ $39 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 98¢ $39 3h
Will Si Woo Kim make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 85¢ $34 3h
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY No 85¢ $34 3h
Will Dylan Wu make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 98¢ $39 3h
Will Dylan Wu make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 3h
Will Ben James make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 16¢ $7 3h
Will Max Greyserman make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,615.57 · official $2,614.42 (match) · 3500 history records