Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0x3c1c…d798

other · 5 markets active 1h ago

5.0score

+$23 +29%

TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open −$1

avoidriskycopy

✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Net worth$37

Realized+$24

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day7.2

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit20%

Chart Positions 2 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$24

7 days+$24

14 days+$24

30 days+$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	No	47¢	46¢	$12	$12	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe	Jun 12	$5	−$2	-33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$16	+156%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$25	+$10	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 93% +$25

finance 7% −$2

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	47¢	$13	56m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe	SELL No	4¢	$4	1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe	BUY No	6¢	$5	2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$26	3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$25	12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$35	19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$25	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+39.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+54.3%	+39.6%	67%	67%	+43.7%
≤30d	3	+54.3%	+39.6%	67%	67%	+43.7%
≤90d	3	+54.3%	+39.6%	67%	67%	+43.7%
all	3	+54.3%	+39.6%	67%	67%	+43.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover7.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.6%	67%	+43.7%
10%	+26.2%	67%	+30.0%
15%	+14.0%	67%	+17.4%
20%	+2.9%	33%	+5.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.76 · official $36.76 (match) · 8 history records