Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c1d…afe3 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-8%) realized −$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$11
other 48% −$20
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.2% -19.6% 32% 32% -19.6%
≤30d 31 -11.2% -19.6% 32% 32% -19.6%
≤90d 31 -11.2% -19.6% 32% 32% -19.6%
all 31 -11.2% -19.6% 32% 32% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 32% -19.6%
10% -27.3% 32% -27.3%
15% -34.3% 32% -34.3%
20% -40.8% 32% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)31 / 44
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 15¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 30¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 17¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +249%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +140%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 +$6 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $2 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 11h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 36h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 36h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 39h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.08 · official $24.32 (match) · 58 history records