Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c1d…380c sports 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$151 (-10%) realized −$153 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%119W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$77
other 29% +$44
politics 17% −$104
world 3% −$15
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.3% -5.6% 47% 40% +14.4%
≤30d 15 +4.3% -5.6% 47% 40% +14.4%
≤90d 55 -52.4% -57.0% 18% 16% -45.6%
all 274 +2.3% -7.4% 43% 42% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 42% -19.6%
10% -16.3% 42% -27.3%
15% -24.4% 39% -34.3%
20% -31.8% 37% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses119 / 155
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)274 / 293
History coverage152d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 32¢ 82¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+156%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 48¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 50¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 41¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy before 2027?-kuQe Yes 2¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+185%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 45¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$5 +129%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$5 +146%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $1 +$5 +354%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: LAZER vs LYON - Map 1 Winner Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports - Game 4 Winner Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Team World vs. Team USA Stars Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-02-15? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripes Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Team World vs. Team USA Stripes Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-16? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 59m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $3 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 14h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 29h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 35h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 35h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 33¢ $3 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $5 35h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $2 42h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 31¢ $2 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $4 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $4 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $5 58d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 61d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 29¢ $2 85d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY JD Gaming 32¢ $2 85d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 85d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 85d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 86d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 105d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 47¢ $4 105d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 42¢ $4 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.98 · official $60.98 (match) · 726 history records