Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c1f…0b79 crypto 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%145W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$10
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 3% -8.3%
≤30d 150 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 3% -8.7%
≤90d 150 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 3% -8.7%
all 150 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -8.7%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses145 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records