Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c25…e4b0
crypto · 1288 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$838 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$833 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$833
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses696 / 512
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1208 / 1288
History coverage8d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day261.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$532
7 days+$444
14 days−$833
30 days−$833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$838
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1006 +4.8% -5.2% 59% 57% -6.0%
≤30d 1208 +1.7% -7.9% 58% 56% -13.3%
≤90d 1208 +1.7% -7.9% 58% 56% -13.3%
all 1208 +1.7% -7.9% 58% 56% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover261.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 56% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 53% -21.6%
15% -24.8% 48% -29.2%
20% -32.2% 42% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.90 (match) · 2822 history records