Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c2b…825e sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,152 (-24%) realized −$4,900 · open −$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 36L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$266est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$703
7 days−$3,959
14 days−$4,258
30 days−$4,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$5,341
other 5% +$145
crypto 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -15.2% -23.2% 47% 47% -28.3%
≤30d 61 -17.9% -25.8% 46% 46% -29.4%
≤90d 61 -17.9% -25.8% 46% 46% -29.4%
all 66 -17.5% -25.3% 45% 45% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 45% -31.8%
10% -32.5% 42% -38.3%
15% -39.0% 38% -44.3%
20% -45.0% 33% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$323 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$4,900
Unrealized−$252
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$266
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage144d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 21¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $253 +$201 +79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$135 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $304 +$192 +63%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $312 −$308 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $305 +$376 +123%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $329 −$325 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $264 +$372 +141%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $313 −$310 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,550 −$1,148 -74%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $304 +$196 +65%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $89 +$81 +91%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $304 +$251 +83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $304 −$193 -63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $302 +$64 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $732 +$694 +95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $336 +$161 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $303 +$126 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $608 −$600 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$288 +188%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $506 +$301 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $311 +$172 +55%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$78 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $308 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $302 +$78 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $342 +$459 +134%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$109 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $276 −$271 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $255 −$250 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $611 −$600 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 21¢ $205 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 51¢ $203 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $203 8h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 55¢ $253 12h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 51¢ $203 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $51 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $152 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 27¢ $153 30h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $20 30h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 100¢ $681 30h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $190 30h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 61¢ $304 31h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $306 33h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 44¢ $305 33h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $329 37h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 39¢ $305 39h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $635 39h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 70¢ $313 43h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 33¢ $83 43h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 44¢ $102 44h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 49¢ $80 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 18¢ $402 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $337 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.97 · official $147.97 (match) · 125 history records