Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c2b…9f46 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 110L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$14
politics 30% −$12
sports 13% −$47
crypto 6% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -5.8% -14.8% 10% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -22.9% 4% -18.4%
15% -30.4% 3% -26.3%
20% -37.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage131d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $267 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $278 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $263 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $261 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $264 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $489 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $274 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $256 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $268 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $264 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $666 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $492 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $749 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $481 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 18h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 44h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 15d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 23d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 24d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $221 25d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $221 26d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $206 26d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $206 27d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $272 27d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $272 27d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $278 27d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $278 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $211 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $211 28d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $263 28d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $263 29d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 30d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $264 30d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $264 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $206 32d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $206 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records