Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c2d…cd40 politics 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 82L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$11
sports 27% −$7
other 18% −$4
crypto 7% −$1
economics 5% $0
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 86 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage207d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $516 −$2 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $514 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $256 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $255 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $256 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $259 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $259 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $260 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 08 $260 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $260 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $261 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $261 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $512 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $261 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 19 $261 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 17 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $262 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $262 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $262 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $262 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $250 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $253 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 27 $251 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 08 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 07 $252 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $257 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $512 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $257 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $519 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $253 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $255 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $255 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $254 6d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $254 8d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $255 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $255 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $255 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $255 24d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $256 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $256 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $255 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 31d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $256 31d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $256 40d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $256 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 42d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 42d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 42d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 42d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $256 45d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $257 45d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $257 46d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $258 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $258 47d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $258 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $258 51d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $258 52d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $259 71d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $259 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records