Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c31…001e crypto 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$231 (-3%) realized −$18 · open −$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate83%105W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$43
14 days−$160
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$246
world 8% −$85
finance 5% +$22
other 5% +$6
tech 2% +$15
politics 2% −$15
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.7% -2.5% 89% 11% -5.7%
≤30d 22 +8.1% -2.2% 73% 27% -11.2%
≤90d 127 +0.5% -9.1% 83% 29% -11.1%
all 127 +0.5% -9.1% 83% 29% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 29% -11.1%
10% -17.8% 18% -19.6%
15% -25.8% 9% -27.4%
20% -33.0% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$29 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,671
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses105 / 22
Open positions32
Markets (closed)127 / 159
History coverage86d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 28? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $88 $93 +$5 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 29? No 96¢ 92¢ $96 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 28? No 92¢ 85¢ $92 $85 −$7 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 29? No 87¢ 84¢ $87 $84 −$3 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Yes 88¢ 79¢ $88 $79 −$9 (-10%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 28? No 95¢ 79¢ $95 $79 −$16 (-17%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? Yes 92¢ 78¢ $92 $78 −$14 (-15%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 29? No 76¢ 56¢ $76 $56 −$20 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 56¢ $73 $56 −$17 (-23%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 87¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 88¢ 78¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Yes 64¢ 47¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $279 −$24 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 22? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 11 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 08 $9 +$11 +127%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 08 $17 +$12 +72%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 08 $93 +$107 +115%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 02 $12 +$8 +70%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $28 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 26 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 26 $30 +$20 +67%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 08 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 08 $28 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 08 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 5? May 08 $86 +$14 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? May 08 $85 +$15 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 08 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 08 $168 +$32 +19%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 08 $598 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 08 $29 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 08 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 08 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 6? May 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $46 −$24 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 04 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 20? Apr 28 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 28 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 28 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 20? Apr 28 $6 +$4 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 21? Apr 28 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Apr 28 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? Apr 28 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 20? Apr 28 $6 +$4 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $56 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $36 20h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 30? BUY No 93¢ $93 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $95 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $87 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 29? BUY No 96¢ $96 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $92 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $76 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 50¢ $44 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $95 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $85 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $255 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $25 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $70 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $93 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $84 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $75 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,670.91 · official $1,671.28 (match) · 410 history records