Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c32…7156 sports 1536 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,235 (-3%) realized −$2,181 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%813W / 681L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Fees−$722est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$849
other 8% +$273
politics 5% +$245
world 4% +$58
tech 1% +$281
crypto 0% +$5
culture 0% +$14
finance 0% −$67
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 640 -38.1% -44.0% 34% 33% -41.5%
≤30d 1332 -9.2% -17.8% 49% 48% -19.5%
≤90d 1494 +0.5% -9.1% 54% 53% -9.5%
all 1494 +0.5% -9.1% 54% 53% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 53% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 48% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 43% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 37% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$36 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,922
Realized−$2,181
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses813 / 681
Est. fees paid−$722
Open positions45
Markets (closed)1494 / 1536
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 1494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 58¢ 99¢ $104 $179 +$74 (+71%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $123 $130 +$7 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 48¢ 98¢ $60 $123 +$63 (+106%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $110 $116 +$6 (+5%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $112 $116 +$3 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 73¢ 99¢ $83 $113 +$30 (+36%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 88¢ 92¢ $99 $102 +$4 (+4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 99¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 78¢ $73 $68 −$6 (-8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 52¢ 87¢ $36 $61 +$24 (+67%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 46¢ $72 $39 −$33 (-46%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 46¢ 54¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+16%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 71¢ 84¢ $31 $37 +$5 (+18%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 39¢ $12 $35 +$23 (+198%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 63¢ 69¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+10%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 57¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ 54¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 63¢ 46¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $46 +$10 +21%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $88 −$66 -75%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $29 +$18 +60%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $49 +$18 +38%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $19 −$18 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $63 +$22 +36%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$3 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 +$11 +73%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +61%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +43%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $29 +$29 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $59 +$53 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$19 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $16 +$30 +180%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $39 +$7 +17%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$17 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $7 +$24 +365%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $43 +$10 +24%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $33 +$23 +70%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $40 +$12 +29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $26 +$23 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $33 +$23 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +13%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $24 +$14 +60%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$22 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$4 +13%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $41 +$7 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $15 +$22 +152%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $38 +$5 +13%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $39 +$14 +35%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $15 +$24 +156%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $19 +$15 +79%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $22 +$20 +90%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $51 +$5 +11%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $34 −$34 -99%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $67 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 20¢ $22 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 58¢ $104 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 58¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 63¢ $36 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $26 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $25 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $119 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 62¢ $29 6h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Ryan Seggerman 25¢ $14 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 40¢ $19 7h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 17¢ $10 7h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 82¢ $46 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $88 7h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Emilien Demanet 68¢ $27 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $21 12h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $24 15h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $29 15h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $30 17h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $43 17h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $21 18h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 77¢ $40 18h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $33 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $27 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $16 20h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $33 20h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $26 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,922.04 · official $1,949.44 · 3500 history records