Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c33…7fa3 crypto 20 markets active 20h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-5%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate90%18W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.2% -13.3% 90% 20% -14.4%
≤30d 20 -4.2% -13.3% 90% 20% -14.4%
≤90d 20 -4.2% -13.3% 90% 20% -14.4%
all 20 -4.2% -13.3% 90% 20% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 20% -14.4%
10% -21.6% 10% -22.6%
15% -29.2% 0% -30.1%
20% -36.1% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses18 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records