Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c42…2adc world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$88 (-6%) realized −$94 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$57
14 days−$147
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$99
other 33% −$2
politics 2% +$4
crypto 1% −$9
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.8% -19.3% 62% 23% -19.9%
≤30d 41 -3.6% -12.8% 66% 37% -18.8%
≤90d 48 +2.3% -7.4% 65% 38% -16.5%
all 48 +2.3% -7.4% 65% 38% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 38% -16.5%
10% -16.3% 21% -24.5%
15% -24.4% 15% -31.8%
20% -31.8% 8% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Open positions10
Markets (closed)48 / 58
History coverage37d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 72¢ 79¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 88¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 86¢ 84¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $120 −$8 -7%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $44 −$19 -43%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 +$4 +10%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 17 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $120 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $110 +$18 +16%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $9 +$2 +26%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $149 +$18 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $56 +$21 +37%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 06 $5 +$3 +54%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $34 −$8 -23%
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 01 $18 −$2 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 30 $9 −$1 -7%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 30 $10 +$1 +13%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 30 $30 +$3 +10%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 27 $16 −$9 -59%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $10 +$8 +80%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $20 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $10 +$2 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $14 +$7 +49%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $22 +$3 +16%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$13 +126%
Will Israel come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$23 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $20 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $72 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 44¢ $25 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $46 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 65¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 72¢ $10 3d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 4d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $20 4d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 4d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 77¢ $8 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 86¢ $9 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 79¢ $15 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 89¢ $15 5d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 94¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $8 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 93¢ $11 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 93¢ $4 6d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 6d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $2 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $116 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 93¢ $118 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 95¢ $120 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $128 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.14 · official $130.15 (match) · 161 history records