Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c43…8ebc crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-7%) realized −$73 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%42W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$172
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$87
other 35% +$163
sports 22% +$71
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -10.7% -19.2% 28% 28% +20.4%
≤30d 60 -10.7% -19.2% 28% 28% +20.4%
≤90d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 34% +21.8%
all 119 +3.6% -6.2% 35% 34% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 34% +5.1%
10% -15.2% 34% -5.0%
15% -23.4% 34% -14.1%
20% -30.9% 32% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses42 / 77
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 127
History coverage101d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $44 +$44 +101%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$63 +89%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win o Jun 23 $31 +$71 +233%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 +$3 +90%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$23 +455%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$6 +301%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $10 +$30 +291%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $10 +$27 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$7 +142%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -47%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$12 +226%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H Moneyline Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 2 RB Leipzig? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 41m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 41m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 4h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $38 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Co BUY 19¢ $20 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co BUY 24¢ $31 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win o SELL 99¢ $102 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 69¢ $28 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge SELL 99¢ $40 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win o BUY 29¢ $31 41h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge BUY 25¢ $10 43h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 94¢ $38 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Urugua BUY 30¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.14 · official $42.14 (match) · 337 history records