Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c44…2fff
crypto · 406 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$67 · open +$65
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$663
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses171 / 203
Open positions32
Markets (closed)374 / 406
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 32 History 374 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 32¢ 63¢ $98 $190 +$92 (+94%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 37¢ 79¢ $32 $68 +$36 (+113%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 15¢ 46¢ $21 $64 +$43 (+204%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 68¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+92%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 60¢ $17 $30 +$13 (+74%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 90¢ 92¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 51¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-17%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 82¢ 99¢ $22 $26 +$5 (+21%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 54¢ 68¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+25%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 26¢ $20 $15 −$6 (-27%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 74¢ $6 $14 +$7 (+109%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 22¢ 21¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+79%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 50¢ 56¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 58¢ 88¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 43¢ 54¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 81¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 23¢ 49¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+118%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 28¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 41¢ 32¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 49¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -70%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 09 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 21? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $1 $0 -37%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -69%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -82%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -20%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 29 $1 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +2%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 29 $1 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 29 $54 −$47 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$39
world 39% +$71
politics 6% −$20
weather 2% −$10
other 1% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 50¢ $8 16m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $2 17m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $13 52m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 93¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 23¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $1 3h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $3 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $2 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 50¢ $3 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 53¢ $3 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 38¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 51¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 51¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 54¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 57¢ $3 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 55¢ $4 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 55¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 54¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -90.6% -91.5% 0% 0% -95.9%
≤30d 374 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 39% -28.4%
≤90d 374 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 39% -28.4%
all 374 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 39% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 39% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 36% -35.2%
15% -29.9% 29% -41.5%
20% -36.8% 21% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.74 · official $662.49 (match) · 1037 history records