Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:26:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c48…d700 crypto 1811 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$381 (+6%) realized +$381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%932W / 806L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$297
14 days+$488
30 days+$602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$744
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 54% +10.8%
≤30d 485 +15.4% +4.4% 61% 60% +12.2%
≤90d 1738 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 53% +2.0%
all 1738 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 53% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 53% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 52% -7.8%
15% -24.7% 50% -16.7%
20% -32.1% 48% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses932 / 806
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1738 / 1811
History coverage82d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1738 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $284 +$279 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $186 −$180 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$55 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$12 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $284 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2844 history records