Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c4b…1f3c sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$171 (+48%) realized +$167 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$187
crypto 38% +$4
other 18% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +64.2% +48.6% 17% 17% +53.5%
≤30d 6 +64.2% +48.6% 17% 17% +53.5%
≤90d 6 +64.2% +48.6% 17% 17% +53.5%
all 6 +64.2% +48.6% 17% 17% +53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.6% 17% +53.5%
10% +34.4% 17% +38.8%
15% +21.4% 17% +25.4%
20% +9.5% 17% +13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$30 · ×9.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $131 $135 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 $0 -3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $62 −$37 -60%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $35 +$274 +784%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 33m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 33m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $23 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 17h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $135 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.76 · official $134.76 (match) · 17 history records