Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c4c…066e crypto 1462 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,281 (-16%) realized −$1,211 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%559W / 873L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day77.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$206
14 days−$281
30 days−$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$287
other 16% −$126
weather 3% −$97
sports 3% −$37
finance 1% −$14
tech 1% −$8
world 1% −$37
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 500 -18.9% -26.6% 38% 34% -15.3%
≤30d 1432 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 36% -15.9%
≤90d 1432 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 36% -15.9%
all 1432 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 36% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 36% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 34% -23.9%
15% -32.5% 32% -31.3%
20% -39.1% 29% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$1,211
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses559 / 873
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1432 / 1462
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day77.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 39¢ 80¢ $17 $34 +$17 (+103%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 30¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-30%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 80¢ 96¢ $20 $25 +$4 (+20%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $35 $12 −$23 (-66%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+66%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 61¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 71¢ 63¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? No 38¢ 29¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-69%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? No 3¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 28? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? Jun 27 $193 +$84 +44%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $151 +$32 +21%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $9 +$3 +27%
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 26? Jun 27 $96 +$19 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 26? Jun 26 $16 +$5 +35%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 26? Jun 26 $11 +$7 +71%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Meta (META) close above $550 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$17 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$3 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 3m
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 34¢ $2 6m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 8m
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 43¢ $3 20m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 21m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? BUY Yes 79¢ $41 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? BUY Yes 63¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 60¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 63¢ $10 2h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $10 2h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 2h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 3h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 3h
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 3h
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 3h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 3h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $25 17h
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $45 18h
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $20 18h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 21h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 26? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 21h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 22h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 26? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 22h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.82 · official $184.69 · 3500 history records