Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c4e…5f51 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
other 31% $0
culture 11% +$2
politics 4% $0
sports 4% −$8
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -10.9%
10% -18.9% 3% -19.5%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage479d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $6 $0 +3%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Mar 21 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Jazz Mar 03 $15 −$8 -57%
Will "El Mal" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'The Brutalist' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Osc Mar 02 $15 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $31 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $29 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $2 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $18 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $22 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $35 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $27 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $31 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $10 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $21 14d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 189d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 362d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.40 · official $34.40 (match) · 81 history records