Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c51…5682 politics 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$148 (-0%) realized −$149 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%35W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$978per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$281
politics 38% −$61
sports 12% +$192
world 4% −$13
economics 3% +$1
tech 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 136 +0.2% -9.3% 26% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 10% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 10% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 8% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,246) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$683
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses35 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage149d
Avg bet$978
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $682 $683 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $214 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $281 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,943 −$3 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,344 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $999 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,347 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,232 −$3 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,631 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $493 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,569 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,667 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,857 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $419 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,696 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,037 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,178 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $2,334 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,398 −$4 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,282 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,098 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $2,097 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,730 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,989 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,949 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,994 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 4h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 24h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 26h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $343 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $343 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $267 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $267 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $231 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $231 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $682 12d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $692 13d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $693 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $998 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $999 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $894 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $896 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $979 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $980 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $931 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $932 17d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 17d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,067 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,068 22d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,071 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.59 · official $682.59 (match) · 430 history records