Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3c53…824e crypto 1182 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$197 (+3%) realized +$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%651W / 526L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$13
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 54% -10.9%
≤30d 655 +1.8% -7.9% 56% 56% -5.3%
≤90d 1177 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 55% -7.4%
all 1177 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 55% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 55% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 55% -16.3%
15% -24.5% 53% -24.4%
20% -31.9% 49% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses651 / 526
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1177 / 1182
History coverage56d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1177 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2363 history records