Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c56…e5bd crypto 700 markets active 6d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate94%659W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -5.1% -14.1% 85% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 206 -1.0% -10.4% 93% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 700 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 5% -10.2%
all 700 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses659 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)700 / 700
History coverage72d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 700 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1435 history records