Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3C 0x3c58…7bd8 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$3
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +61.6% +46.2% 56% 44% -8.1%
≤30d 10 +54.8% +40.1% 50% 40% -8.1%
≤90d 10 +54.8% +40.1% 50% 40% -8.1%
all 10 +54.8% +40.1% 50% 40% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.1% 40% -8.1%
10% +26.7% 40% -16.9%
15% +14.4% 40% -24.9%
20% +3.2% 30% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage19d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 21¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$42 +772%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.37 · official $1.12 · 22 history records