Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c5a…0a4f crypto 1005 markets active 4h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58,772 (-171%) realized −$58,207 · open −$565
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%81W / 913L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$19,373
finance 3% −$274
other 0% −$33
sports 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-68.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -83.9% -85.4% 4% 3% -80.3%
≤30d 409 -66.6% -69.8% 8% 8% -69.6%
≤90d 994 -64.8% -68.2% 8% 7% -62.8%
all 994 -64.8% -68.2% 8% 7% -62.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.2% 7% -62.8%
10% ← realistic here -71.2% 7% -66.4%
15% -74.0% 6% -69.6%
20% -76.6% 5% -72.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$30 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$58,207
Unrealized−$565
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses81 / 913
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)994 / 1005
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 994 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $270 $59 −$211 (-78%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $126 $57 −$69 (-55%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-15%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $105 $35 −$69 (-66%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $94 $19 −$75 (-79%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? No 0¢ 0¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $60 $8 −$52 (-87%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $49 $6 −$43 (-88%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-74%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$41 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $48 −$34 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$12 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -90%
Will Solana reach $140 in June? Jun 16 $90 −$56 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $27 −$24 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $27 −$14 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $41 −$18 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $73 −$41 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $35 −$28 -80%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$34 -75%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 −$18 -72%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 15 $16 −$4 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -69%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $46 −$32 -70%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $71 −$56 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $44 −$40 -92%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $126 −$124 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 15 $353 −$157 -45%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 14 $23 −$15 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $60 −$21 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $79 −$28 -36%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $11 −$9 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $40 −$33 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $19 −$12 -65%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $62 −$53 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $39 −$18 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$21 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$22 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $17 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 0¢ $1 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 1¢ $3 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 4¢ $20 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $39 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $49 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $2 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.58 · official $255.58 (match) · 3500 history records