Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c5c…2070 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-14%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$28
crypto 12% +$15
sports 7% −$13
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -5.8% -14.7% 7% 7% -18.8%
≤30d 85 -5.8% -14.7% 7% 7% -18.8%
≤90d 92 -8.7% -17.4% 8% 8% -24.8%
all 92 -8.7% -17.4% 8% 8% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 8% -24.8%
10% -25.3% 8% -32.0%
15% -32.5% 8% -38.6%
20% -39.1% 8% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$2 · ×10.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)92 / 101
History coverage76d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 +$25 +2458%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0. Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$23 +1116%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 46h
United States vs. Australia: Australia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.39 · official $8.39 (match) · 113 history records