Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c5c…db6d other 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate29%28W / 69L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$67
sports 20% −$1
crypto 4% +$1
world 3% +$7
politics 3% −$11
finance 2% −$11
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% +$10
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -15.3% -23.4% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 17 -15.3% -23.4% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤90d 41 -16.8% -24.7% 2% 0% -17.0%
all 97 -4.4% -13.5% 29% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 9% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 8% -18.4%
15% -29.3% 6% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses28 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)97 / 104
History coverage547d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+106%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? No 23¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? No 12¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-77%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 10–15%? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $4 −$2 -49%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $48 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 23 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 23 $8 $0 -2%
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 23 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 23 $5 $0 -8%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -8%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 11 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $76 in May? May 11 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr May 11 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 11 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 11 $18 −$7 -38%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 11 $26 −$1 -4%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 11 $1 $0 -44%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 11 $279 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 11 $98 −$4 -4%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 11 $17 $0 -3%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $14 −$8 -57%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May? May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 11 $1 $0 -4%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May? May 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 11 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $38 $0 -1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $19 −$1 -4%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 11 $27 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $90 −$2 -3%
The American Rodeo Championship: Rocker Steiner Repeat? May 11 $12 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 11 $32 $0 -1%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 09 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 09 $244 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 09 $126 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $244 −$4 -2%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $16 +$3 +19%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Mar 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 02 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7m
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY No 23¢ $5 15m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 19m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $3 24m
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 52m
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 59m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? SELL No 7¢ $1 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 6¢ $3 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? SELL No 15¢ $3 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? BUY No 25¢ $5 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? BUY No 10¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 2h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 42¢ $8 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $11 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 57¢ $28 2h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 72¢ $36 2h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 42¢ $4 2h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 42¢ $4 2h
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2h
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 73¢ $36 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 60¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.88 · official $36.88 (match) · 308 history records