Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c5e…8d6e other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16,347 (-27%) realized −$19,124 · open +$2,777
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,714per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$690est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$27,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$610
14 days−$610
30 days−$20,190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$5,576
sports 42% −$14,421
crypto 7% +$2,584
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-58.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -53.6% -58.0% 0% 0% -21.6%
≤30d 7 -54.6% -58.9% 14% 14% -60.8%
≤90d 7 -54.6% -58.9% 14% 14% -60.8%
all 7 -54.6% -58.9% 14% 14% -60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.9% 14% -60.8%
10% ← realistic here -62.8% 14% -64.6%
15% -66.4% 0% -68.0%
20% -69.7% 0% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3,365 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$27,362
Realized−$19,124
Unrealized+$2,777
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$690
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage27d
Avg bet$4,714
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $4,285 $6,869 +$2,584 (+60%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $4,285 $6,324 +$2,039 (+48%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $4,285 $4,808 +$523 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $4,285 $3,391 −$894 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3,160 $3,312 +$152 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $4,285 $2,657 −$1,628 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $67 −$33 -49%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4,442 −$534 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Seas Jun 01 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $1,003 −$971 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5,307 −$5,160 -97%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $24,929 −$13,450 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $34 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $3,908 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $45 6d
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 25¢ $999 21d
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $5,307 22d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 2¢ $149 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 1¢ $5 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 1¢ $126 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $10 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $80 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $208 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $360 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $284 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $2 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $1 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $18 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $10 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $1 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $15 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $144 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $3 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $1 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $1 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $1 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $2 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $20 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $50 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $19 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 14¢ $48 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,362.28 · official $27,362.28 (match) · 113 history records