Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c60…27f8 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+11%) realized +$21 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$28
crypto 32% −$23
other 23% +$29
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-58.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -53.7% -58.1% 9% 9% -23.3%
≤30d 11 -53.7% -58.1% 9% 9% -23.3%
≤90d 11 -53.7% -58.1% 9% 9% -23.3%
all 11 -53.7% -58.1% 9% 9% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.1% 9% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -62.1% 9% -30.7%
15% -65.8% 9% -37.4%
20% -69.1% 9% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$6 · ×7.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $25 −$19 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$41 +203%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 12¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.02 · official $12.02 · 56 history records