Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c60…04ce
crypto · 174 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$301 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$319 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$319
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses69 / 103
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)172 / 174
History coverage56d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -94%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 04 $23 −$16 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 04 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 04 $2 +$12 +545%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 01 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 28 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 28 $8 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 28 $9 +$8 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 28 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 28 $7 +$6 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 28 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 28 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$3 +264%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% +$255
world 6% +$70
sports 2% −$3
other 1% −$18
politics 1% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 7d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $19 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $17 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $14 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 172 -12.7% -21.1% 40% 32% +1.1%
all 172 -12.7% -21.1% 40% 32% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 32% +1.1%
10% -28.6% 29% -8.6%
15% -35.5% 24% -17.4%
20% -41.8% 17% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.20 · official $11.20 (match) · 516 history records