trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 25% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 25% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 36% | 0% | -8.4% |
| all | 28 | -1.9% | -11.3% | 46% | 4% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.3% | 4% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -19.8% | 0% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -27.5% | 0% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -34.6% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $17 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $35 | −$1 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 24 | $17 | +$1 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $32 | +$2 | +5% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $32 | +$1 | +2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 25 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Apr 12 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 11 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | Apr 11 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 08 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 07 | $27 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Left be part of the next German government? | Apr 07 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 31 | $12 | +$2 | +13% |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? | Mar 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 23 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 18 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |