Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c64…cb26 sports 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,166 (+6%) realized +$1,599 · open +$567
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%161W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$3,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,555
14 days+$1,555
30 days+$1,620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$344
sports 43% +$2,759
crypto 4% +$57
world 4% −$66
politics 2% −$33
finance 1% −$25
weather 1% −$4
tech 0% −$121
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +110.5% +90.5% 50% 50% +179.8%
≤30d 24 +60.0% +44.8% 54% 46% +58.7%
≤90d 124 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 39% +3.5%
all 286 +1.5% -8.1% 56% 38% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 38% -4.8%
10% -16.9% 30% -13.9%
15% -25.0% 25% -22.2%
20% -32.3% 21% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$55 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$3,865
Realized+$1,599
Unrealized+$567
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses161 / 125
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions13
Markets (closed)286 / 299
History coverage126d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,232 $1,651 +$419 (+34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $931 $1,115 +$183 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $255 $282 +$27 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $311 $234 −$77 (-25%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $104 $200 +$96 (+92%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $100 $89 −$12 (-12%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 19¢ $154 $76 −$78 (-51%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Palmeiras win Copa Libertadores? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $22 $33 +$11 (+49%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will São Paulo win Brazil Série A? No 70¢ 99¢ $8 $12 +$3 (+41%)
Will Flamengo win Copa Libertadores? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $20 +$23 +111%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $150 +$1,520 +1011%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $87 +$63 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $103 +$167 +163%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $55 +$25 +45%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 +$31 +307%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $125 −$122 -98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? Jun 04 $7 +$21 +291%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Universidad Central win Copa Libertadores? May 30 $8 +$5 +67%
Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026- May 30 $100 +$4 +4%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 29 $110 +$38 +34%
CR Flamengo leading at halftime? May 26 $56 −$55 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Didier Deschamps be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 24 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 24 $75 −$74 -99%
Will CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? May 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 23 $500 +$28 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $248 +$152 +61%
Will Leo Pereira be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 18 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $82 +$2 +2%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 18 $47 +$3 +7%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Avellino achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-2 May 17 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Real Madrid place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? May 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $103 +$47 +46%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $151 +$159 +105%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Cesena achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 May 09 $7 $0 +5%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $110 −$108 -98%
CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score May 03 $60 −$59 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $62 +$138 +223%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $100 +$28 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $101 +$179 +178%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $102 +$68 +67%
Will Venezia achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 May 01 $104 +$5 +5%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $106 +$130 +122%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $205 +$405 +197%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $114 +$76 +67%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $218 −$214 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $168 −$69 -41%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $106 −$105 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $105 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? SELL No 90¢ $43 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 2d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 36¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $95 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 4d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 49¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 57¢ $87 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $103 6d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 76¢ $20 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 35¢ $51 6d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 77¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $55 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $125 6d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $24 6d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 18¢ $54 15d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 15d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 18d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad SELL No 68¢ $147 20d
CR Flamengo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $56 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $44 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $1 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $2 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $17 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,865.22 · official $3,865.22 (match) · 1377 history records